2014 political polling was biased: big feedback may be at work

The polls worked earlier because they could isolate large groups as having similar behaviors. The early successes benefited from broad geographic locations or ethnic identifications can predict something. Feedback can cause these broad groups to fragment and disperse. New polling results will have to identify increasingly larger numbers of tinier groups in order to find similar predictive power. This will increase the cost of polling by requiring many more samples. Eventually, the polls (and data) will have to be micro-targeted to characterize views and motivations for each individual.